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Corona usa numbers11/20/2023 Protection against SARS-CoV-2 after Covid-19 vaccination and previous infection. Estimated Number of COVID-19 Infections, Hospitalizations, and Deaths Prevented Among Vaccinated Persons in the US, December 2020 to September 2021. Nonetheless, the authors of this and other modeling papers should incorporate prior infections into their mathematical construct.ġ. It is now unclear how well or for how long a prior Covid infection or Covid vaccination, for that matter, protects against the new Omicron SARS-Cov-2 variants. It is estimated that 88 million Americans have had a previous Covid infection. However, when formulating a model, it is essential to include all significant parameters. A safe, effective SARS-Cov-2 vaccine would be the best way to protect against infection, hospitalization, and death. That certainly does not imply that having a Covid infection is protective, far from it. Three significant articles now suggest that prior infection provides substantial immunity (4-6). What models including their effort so far have not included is the effect of prior infection in providing a degree of protection against future infections, hospitalization and death. Models are as good as the integration of reasonable hypotheses. There are multiple models of the benefit of vaccination against SARS-Cov-2 including now this article by Steele et al which appears to offer a fairly conservative estimate (1-3). Mathematical modeling can help us predict the future by evaluating past experience.
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